Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model

Predicting the probability of wind damage in both natural and managed forests is important for understanding forest ecosystem functioning, the environmental impact of storms and for forest risk management. We undertook a thorough validation of three versions of the hybrid-mechanistic wind risk model, ForestGALES, and a statistical logistic regression model, against observed damage in a Scottish upland conifer forest following a major storm. Statistical analysis demonstrated that increasing tree height and local wind speed during the storm were the main factors associated with increased damage levels. All models provided acceptable discrimination between damaged and undamaged forest stands but there were trade-offs between the accuracy of the mechanistic models and model bias. The two versions of the mechanistic model with the lowest bias gave very comparable overall results at the forest scale and could form part of a decision support system for managing forest wind damage risk. Crown Copyright © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Software availability Name of software: ForestGALES Developers: Forest Research and INRA Contact address: Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9SY, United Kingdom Email: [email protected] Availability and Online Documentation: The software along with supporting material is freely available. Go to http://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/forestgales to find out how to obtain the software or email [email protected] Year first available: 2000 Hardware required: IBM compatible PC Software required: MSWindows F-33140, Villenave d'Ornon,